NIGERIA- NOT YET READY TO END ZONING

I have followed the recent national debates on the merits and demerits of the zoning arrangement in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) - an arrangement meant to balance power between the Northern and Southern power blocks with interest.

Due to feelings of overbalanced power (advantaging the Northern power block) the Southern politicians in the party convinced enough of their Northern counterparts to agree to a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ that the office of the president and by extension other principal positions in the party, be rotated between the North and the South. This arrangement is principally designed to balance power between the North and the South power blocks without neglecting a similar objective within the six Geopolitical zones which has three in the North and three in the South.

After the 8 year term of the former President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, from the South, it was the turn of the North, which produced his successor, the late former President Musa Yar’dua. However, his death before the completion of his first term of the supposedly two terms of eight years allocated to the North, led to a collision between the PDP’s ‘gentleman’s’ arrangement and the Nigerian constitutional arrangement which permits the Vice-President to become the substantive president in the case of such an eventuality. The PDP arrangement was designed to deal with issues of the present while the constitutional arrangement is about aspirations for the future. President Goodluck is from Ijaw in the South-South and he is said to have the backing of its people, most Southerners and some Northerners to contest next year’s presidential elections. 

The debate is polarised principally along the North-South divide, with contributions by conservative and progressive elements. On the whole, the majority of the contributions were rash and impulsive and lacking in foresight that today’s impulsive solutions may lay the foundations for tomorrow’s problem.

Influential sectors of the Northern power elite both within and outside the party have threatened that they will take their turn and have suggested that Goodluck must not contest the 2011 elections. The legitimacy of their actions is based on the assumption that they are yet to complete their term of eight years. In fact, underground efforts which in the past have resulted in military coup d'états were initiated by the North, but it was foiled by the American government and the fact that the Northern ‘power of impunity’ has substantially reduced. The general assumption that the sector is not progressive/effective- a factor which has led to some progressives from there to back Jonathan on the grounds of ‘saving the North from itself’, and the psychology of the prolonged crisis in the Niger Delta, has convinced the sector that it is not ready to withstand the equivalent of another June 12 crisis without rendering itself the loser in the end.

The counter position of the South is that the principle of zoning can accommodate affirmative action -  Proactive steps taken to help reverse the impact of past power imbalances or discrimination against the South or minorities. In that stand they argued, quite correctly, that the North has ruled Nigeria for over 37 years out of his 49 years of existence as an independent state - they have produced Alhaji Tafawa Balewa, Gen Gowon, Gen. Murtala, Alhaji Shagari, Gen. Buhari, Gen. Babangida, Gen. Abacha, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, and Mr Yar’dua. The South has produced two accidental presidents, Chief Obasanjo, Chief Shonekan and one substantial leader, Gen Aguiyi-Ironsi who only spent six months in power before he was removed by the North.

A section of the Northern power elites have sought to differentiate between military and civil leadership saying that the military leaders from their zone were acting on their own. This position, however, has not been supported by the harmony between the two factions. The internal balance of power process in Nigeria also recognises that the “world is characterised by international anarchy …. interests are bound to conflict.. …..the use of force is always an option for the head of state”- the leadership supplied by the power block in power. In fact, one of the most important characteristics of the internal balancing system in Nigeria is its recognition of the strategic importance of the need to use force and the struggle to control the instruments of coercion, such as the military and the security forces of ethnic power blocks. Speaking on the strategic importance of controlling the military and how the north achieved control of the Nigerian military, Alhaji Maitama Sule, an influential Northern power elite, at a book lunch on 22 December 1992, commented:

 “....      When the first Iraqi coup occurred and the prime minister was killed and tied to a vehicle and driven on the streets of Baghdad, Sardauna … reasoned that it was important that we contain this type of development, right now by fixing our boys in the military in case we found ourselves in a like situation ( .....)  Today, we are reaping the fruits of that foresight.  (No matter what) anybody would want to say about the military involvement in government; if you don’t have your man at the helm of affairs, you would have been dealt with or you would have been killed.....”

The latest twist to this power struggle is that the new PDP chairman, Chief Nwodo - is an Ibo man. Yes, an Ibo man who pronounced an end to the zoning arrangement in the party. Most of the opinions coming from progressives are that Nigeria’s politics have grown above zoning or rotation to a fully fledged democracy of one person one vote and a leadership based on absolute merit. What they have not appreciated is that this will require an examination of the true population of the country; a redrawing of the State, Senatorial, legislative boundaries and local councils; and the need for more Local Government Councils in Lagos State and State/s in Ibo Nation are good examples. It would require a compilation of a new voter’s registration, a change in revenue allocation formula, a change in attitude, which is not going to change too soon. These are the issues to be examined.

Reflecting on the nature of the newly created Nigerian state, Sir Arthur Richard (Lord Milverton), pointed out that: “It is only the accident of British suzerainty which has made Nigeria one country.  It is far from being one country or one nation socially or even economically. Socially and politically, there are deep differences between the major tribal [ethnic] groups.  They do not speak the same language and they have highly divergent customs and ways of life and they represent different stages of culture”. Mrs Perham, in her forward to premier Awolowo’s book, written in Dec. 1946 concluded that  “The day when Nigeria from being a name written on a map by Sir George Goldie and an administrative framework put together by Lord Lugard, becomes a true federation, still more a nation, is still far away”.

The truth is that not much has changed since these observations were made by this wise colonialist.  We are not in a position to talk of or about common or national values, objectives and goals. The difference between the Core North and the Southern societies is wider than the gap between the United States of America and Iran. It is not just based on geographical, economic, religious or the wide Western education gaps. It is also differences based on values. Dr Umaru Dikko, a Lawyer, a mathematics graduate, and influential power elite from the North tells us that ‘a verse in Koran is better than all the western education put together’. It is on record that from when he was the Education Secretary in 1975 until he completed his mission when he was made the Minister for Education, Professor Jibril Aminu a most influential power broker from the North laid the foundation for the destruction of our collective education system. In some parts of the country, while a mother would forgo her meal in order to pay for the education of her children, there are other parts where adults and their children who are allergic to Western Education would kill and prefer to be killed in order to avoid it. Is it not the same country where a former Governor and a Senator of the country does not see anything wrong in marrying a 13-year-old girl? Among the holiest of the holy men in his power block performed the ceremony and the Supreme Council for Sharia, (a most holy body in Nigeria) on behalf of Senator Ahmad Sani Yerima, challenges in a federal court the country's child protection laws that ban women from marrying before age 18? Did the people of Bayesta State in the South-South not protest against punishing their former Governor who stole money that belonged to Nigeria? In spite of the confirmation by the international community and the fact that the Nigerian Federal Government made Swiss Banks to return several millions of Dollars of Nigerian money stolen by General Abacha, did three former Heads of State from the North not protest that the late Abacha served Nigeria well? These are manifestos of a system which are lacking in authentic ownership. Any attempt at force integration will only compound our problems. Just as Equal Opportunities does not mean homogeneity, integration must not mean that we all uniformly marched toward our self destruction. We need to embrace ‘Unity in Diversity’ while a jointly managed Central government sets the minimum standards on all issues affecting Nigerians. It is also possible that many people underestimate the depth of the rot in the system. The truth is that nothing works in Nigeria and the scapegoated Super Eagles are the most effective national institution in Nigeria: better than the political, military, and civil services; NEPA, NNPC; as well as the educational and banking institutions.

The political corruption by the colonialist [PCC] aided the political corruption by the local power elites [PCL]. The resultant lack of ownership of the Nigerian system which influenced our choices of destructive negative competitive strategies in our internal balance of power struggles- like a badly disorganised polygamous home, led to the inefficiency of its economic and political institutions [EPI]. The effect of the two combined has led to moral bankruptcy of the entire system [MB].

Nigeria’s Problems = [PCC+ PCL] + EPI + MB.

Following the law of BODMAS, we must first seek to solve the lack of ownership problem through regionalisation that stabilises and gives ownership and responsibilities to each part of the country before we can solve its economic and moral problems. The problem is simply too much for the centre alone to tackle.

What the saga in the PDP has done is to put an end to comic and deceitful party zoning arrangements that lacks either national or constitutional backing. In spite of many examples of the situation in America which are usually wrongly quoted by Nigerians, Nigeria needs a purposeful zoning formula to stabilise its politics. Yes, Nigerian has had the opportunity of seeing countries that have transcended the stage of political development it is in today, yet we must be realistic in our understanding of our current stage of development. Just as we are able to measure the gaps in technology, business efficiency, and living standards, between Nigeria and America we must recognise that unlike America, Nigeria is still a collection of nations and ethnic groups, with probably a gap of between 90-150 years between us in political development. Such realistic analysis makes room for the implementation of realistic purposeful intervention strategies that could hasten our move to nationhood while unrealistic assumptions can only compound our political problems bringing with it negative social economic consequences.

The next stage in our zoning arrangement will require an end to the current presidential system of government in place of an adoption of our own peculiar Parliamentary system of government; a recognition of the six geopolitical zones- eight would be more appropriate, as active regions with Premiers; a down grading of the power of the states, a reduction in the power, duties and the costs of maintaining the centre and political overheads; in addition to a reduction of the number of political parties that can compete nationally to two. Switzerland, the most stable multiethnic country in the whole world is based on this type of formula. The United Kingdom, the mother of the parliament is stable today because of its devolution of political power to regions- this was done almost 300 years after the signing of the Act of the Union (1707) between the English and the Scottish. Yet this has not diminished her democratic credentials. Nigerians must be realistic and do what is right.

 There is currently no alternative to the PDP. Similar situations in the past contributed to the falls of both the first and the second ‘republics’. This is another challenge which the suggested zoning formula must address.

My mother tells me that one does not solve a problem by running away from it. It is in the nature of balance of power that parties, who think they are in an advantageous position- no matter how temporary, tend to deny the existence of the problems.

A few years back, because of its inherent weaknesses, the Northern power block wanted a weak central government, but the South which considered itself to be the stronger power block wanted a strong centre. Nevertheless, when the North eventually gained the upper hand in the balance of power struggle, the South called for a weak central government and a zoning/rotational arrangement. Now, in order to get an Ijaw president, a section of the south is calling for an end to zoning. Under affirmative action and without making such reckless statements, they can achieve their goal; which is to bring the Nigerian power equation to a state of dynamic equilibrium for all its citizens and ethnic nationalities.

It is in the interest of Nigeria that all the power blocks should set aside the current comic and disgraceful constitution amendment and signup for a National Conference to work out an alternative realistic zoning formula that is based on viable regions.

 We must be careful if we do not want to go the current way of Sudan, which for many years was a role model for many Caliphate actors. For now, it is in the interest of both the North and Nigeria that Jonathan should contest the next presidential elections.

Taiwo Akinola [taiakinola@tainvestigations.co.uk]